Tag Archives: doomed

The Big Squeeze, Predictions in Pessimism


Layoff notice or stay the hell away from Alaska when oil is cheap… from sysadmin

 

I thought this would be a technical blog acting as a surrogate for my participation on ServerFault but instead it has morphed into some kind of weird meta-sysadmin blog/soap box/long-form of a reply on r/sysadmin. I guess I am OK with that…

Alaska is a boom and bust economy and despite having a lot going for us fiscally, a combination of our tax structure, oil prices and the Legislature’s approach to the ongoing budget deficit, we are doing our best to auger our economy into the ground. Time for a bit of gallows humor to commiserate with u/Clovis69! The best part of predictions is you get to see how hilariously uninformed you were down the road! Plus, if you are going to draw straws you might as well take bets on who gets the shortest one.

Be forewarned, I am not an economist, I am not even really that informed and if you are my employer, future or otherwise, I am largely being facetious.

The Micro View (what will happen to me and my shop)

  • We will take another 15-20% personnel cuts in IT operations (desktop, server and infrastructure support). That will bring us to close to a 45% reduction in staff since 2015.
  • We will take on additional IT workload as our programming teams continue to lose personnel and consequently shed operational tasks they were doing independently.
  • We will be required to adopt a low-touch, automation-centric support model in order to cope with the workload. We will not have the resources to do the kind of interrupt-driven, in-person support we do now. This is a huge change from our current culture.
  • We will lean really hard on folks that know SCCM, PowerShell, Group Policy and other automation frameworks. Tier-2/Tier-3 will come under more pressure as the interrupt rate increases due to the reduction in Tier-1 staff.
  • Team members that do not adopt automation frameworks will find themselves doing whatever non-automatable grunt work there is left. They will also be more likely to lose their jobs.
  • We will lose a critical team member that is performing this increased automation work as they can simply get paid better elsewhere without having a budget deficit hanging over their head.
  • If we do not complete our consolidation work to standardize and bring silo-ed teams together before we lose what little operational capacity we have left our shop will slip into full blown reactive mode. Preventive maintenance will not get done and in two years time things will be Bad (TM). I mean like straight-up r/sysadmin horror story Bad (TM).
  • I would be surprised if I am still in the same role in the same team.
  • We will somehow have even more meetings.

The Macro View (what will happen to my organization)

Preliminary plans to consolidate IT operations were introduced back in early 2015. In short, our administrative functions including IT operations, are largely decentralized and done at the department level. This leads to a lot of redundant work being performed, poor alignment of IT to the business goals of the organization as a whole, the inability to capture or recover value from economies of scale and widely disparate resources, functionality and service delivery. At a practical level, what this means is there are a whole lot of folks like myself all working to assimilate new workload, standardize it and then automate it as we cope with staff reduction. We are all hurriedly building levers to help us move more and more weight but no one has stopped to say, “Hey guys, if we all work together to build one lever we can move things that are an order of magnitude heavier,” consequently as valiant as our individual efforts are we are going to fail. If I lose four people out of a team of eight, no level of automation that I can come up with will keep our heads above water.

At this point I am not optimistic about our chances for success. The tempo of a project is often determined by its initial pace. I have never seen an IT project move faster as time goes on in the public sector; generally it moves slower and slower as it grinds through the layers of bureaucracy and swims upstream against the prevailing current of institutional inertia and resistance. It has been over a year without any progress that is visible to the rank-and-file staff such as myself and we only have about one, maybe two years, of money left in the piggy bank before we find that the income side of our balance sheet is only 35% of our expenses. To make things even more problematic entities that do want to give up control have had close to two years to actively position themselves to protect their internal IT.

I want IT consolidation to succeed. It seems like the only possible way to continue to provide a similar level of service in the face of a 30-60% staff reduction. I mean, what the hell else are we going to do? Are we going to keep doing things the same way until we run out of money, turn the lights off and go home? If it takes one person on my team to run SCCM for my 800 endpoints, and three people from your team to run SCCM for your 3000 endpoints, how much do you want to bet the four of them could run SCCM for all 12,000 of our endpoints? I am pretty damn confident they could. And this scenario repeats everywhere. We are bailing out our boats, and in each boat is one piece of a high volume bilge pump but we don’t trust each other and no one is talking and we are all moving in a million different directions instead of stopping, collectively getting over whatever stupid pettiness that keeps us from actually doing something smart for once and putting together our badass high volume bilge pump. We will either float together or drown separately.

I seem to recall a similar problem from our nation’s history…

Benjamin Franklin's Join or Die Political Cartoon